【ACY证券】美元见顶遭遇“空”袭，欧镑相争加翁得利
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">在美联储发布决议后的两周里，</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">ACY</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">证券一直在提醒外汇交易者警惕美元见顶的风险，可以说是整个市场中最早提出“经济衰退，美元回调”这个逻辑的机构。而就在昨天，<b>高盛的外汇团队也提出了相同的观点，认为美国经济一旦进入衰退，美元的强势便将随即被打破；同时认为美元目前被大幅高估了约</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">18%</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">，而日元将在未来获得更多的避险需求。</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">而且在美元的贬值路径上，高盛的态度也与我们不谋而合，认为关键点在于美国与其他国家市场的表现差异。不过在这点上，<b>我们有更加明确的观点，美元的表现将更多受到他国经济与政策的影响，而非美国的本身。</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></b></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""><b></b></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">拿最近的行情来说，在美国发布非农、通胀、消费者信心或货币政策，又或是美联储官员讲话之后，美元要么冲高回落，要么高位俯冲，并没有出现趋势突破行情。反而每当欧洲、英国与日本方面有风吹草动，美元总能获得巨大动能。单就这个月来看，<b>英国与欧洲央行官员的讲话带动美元指数接连突破</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">103.7</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">和</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">104</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">两个关口</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">，可见美元动力的主要来源并非是美国本身。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">就在昨天，英国央行行长贝利发表了讲话，内容有些鸽派。然而就在讲话前后，英镑却开始大幅升值，欧元与美元随之下滑（其中还有部分原因是欧洲公布史上最大的贸易逆差）。要知道，月初美元大涨的主要推手就是英国利率决议后的英镑贬值，因此<b>英镑的涨跌能够直接决定美元的短线方向。美元指数昨日逐步回落逼近</b></span><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">104</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">关口。</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></b></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202205/17/152731bqaq1zm1yab3yss7.jpg<br></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="mso-no-proof:yes">
</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">USDCAD</span></i><i><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">一小时图</span></i><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">不过所谓鹬蚌相争，渔翁得利，由于欧、英、日等国家的政策并不稳定，所以汇率趋势并不明显。反而是加元，<b>政策稳定鹰派，原油暴涨利好商品货币，让加元成为了目前市场中最强势的货币。</b>连日元都要避其锋芒（美国股市小幅反弹，利空日元）。从美加小时图来看，汇率空头动能远超其他直盘货币对，足以可见加元的强势。伴随昨日的突破行情，美加的双顶结构成型，价格顶部压力释放。而且从长线来看</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">1.29</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">整数位是关键水平阻力，</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">K</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">线长实体跌破后将产生较大的反向阻力。<b>不过考虑到美元的震荡环境，交易策略可以采用逢高做空为主。</b>短线的关键阻力便是</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">1.29</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">关口，而日内阻力可以关注</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">1.285</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">和</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">1.288</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">两个位置。日内空单尽量配合消息面入场，例如今日即将发布的美国与欧元区经济数据。主要交易思路是，美国经济越差、或者欧洲经济越好，美元承受的压力便越大。现价下方的支撑主要看</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei"">1.272-1.275</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">前低点需求区域。</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei""><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:normal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei"">今日关注数据</span></b><b><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0cm;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">17:00 </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">欧元区第一季度</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">GDP</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">年率</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0cm;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">17:00 </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">欧元区第一季度就业人数季率</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0cm;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">20:00 </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">圣路易斯联储主席布拉德发表讲话</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0cm;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">20:30 </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">美国</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">4</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">月零售销售月率</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0cm;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">21:15 </span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">美国</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">4</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext">月工业产出月率</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0cm;line-height:normal;background:white"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0cm;line-height:normal;vertical-align:
baseline"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US">联系我们</span></b><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:SimSun;
mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:
"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: "Segoe UI", sans-serif;"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0cm;line-height:normal;vertical-align:
baseline"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US">电话：</span><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";
mso-ansi-language:EN-US">167 4049 5509<span lang="ZH-CN">（中国）</span></span><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:SimSun;
mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:
"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: "Segoe UI", sans-serif;"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0cm;line-height:normal;vertical-align:
baseline"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:
SimSun;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI"">1300
729 171</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI"">（澳大利亚）</span><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;
mso-fareast-font-family:SimSun;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: "Segoe UI", sans-serif;"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0cm;line-height:normal;vertical-align:
baseline"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI"">QQ</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI"">：</span><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Segoe UI""> 8008 83691 </span><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;
mso-fareast-font-family:SimSun;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: "Segoe UI", sans-serif;"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0cm;line-height:normal;vertical-align:
baseline"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US">微信：</span><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";
mso-ansi-language:EN-US">acyau2011</span><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;
mso-fareast-font-family:SimSun;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";
mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: "Segoe UI", sans-serif;"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0cm;line-height:normal;vertical-align:
baseline"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US">官网：</span><span lang="EN-AU"><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI"">https://www.acy.com.au</span></span><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:SimSun;
mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:
"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: "Segoe UI", sans-serif;"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0cm;line-height:normal;vertical-align:
baseline"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US">邮箱：</span><span lang="EN-AU"><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI"">[email protected]</span></span><span style="mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:SimSun;mso-hansi-font-family:
Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0cm;line-height:normal;vertical-align:
baseline"><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202205/17/152804u6uituj40kiq6f95.jpg<br><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:SimSun;mso-hansi-font-family:
Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: "Segoe UI", sans-serif;"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0cm;line-height:normal;vertical-align:
baseline"><span style="font-size: large; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-size: large; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-size: large; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0cm;line-height:normal;vertical-align:
baseline"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US">免责声明：</span></b><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:SimSun;
mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:
"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-font-family:"Microsoft YaHei";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: "Segoe UI", sans-serif;"></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0cm;line-height:normal;background:white"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Segoe UI";color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">本文内容由第三方提供。</span><span style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:"Segoe UI";
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">ACY<span lang="ZH-CN">证券对文中内容的准确性和完整性，不做任何声明或保证；由第三方的建议，预测或其他信息导致了投资损失，</span>ACY<span lang="ZH-CN">证券不承担任何责任。本文内容不构成任何投资建议，与个人投资目标，财务状况或需求无关。如有任何疑问，请您咨询独立专业的财务或税务的意见。</span>ACY
Securities Pty Ltd<span lang="ZH-CN">（</span>AFSL 403863<span lang="ZH-CN">）受澳大利亚证券投资委员会授权和监管。</span></span></span><i><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-family:"Microsoft YaHei",sans-serif;mso-bidi-font-family:
"Microsoft YaHei""></span></i></p>
页:
[1]