【ACY证券】何人看涨？何人看衰？明白股市对手的想法
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">美国的超高通胀再度引发资产的抛售浪潮。然而伴随股市的回调，市场情绪也正在发生着微妙的变化。市场的投资情绪经常受到确认偏差的影响，是行为金融学中最常见的情感偏差之一。</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">这种偏差说的是，投资人更加倾向于寻找和自己相同的观点，而忽略那些不同的意见。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">而在目前的股市中，空头方正在竭尽全力支持美联储强硬态度，而多头方则不断寻找美国通胀见顶的线索。</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">如果想要理性地看待市场，那么两边围绕货币政策的意见都需要有所了解。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"></span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">空头方领军人物、美联储喉舌、华尔街日报记者</span></span>Nick<span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">Timiraos</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">本周一再度发文表示，由于股市</span></span>6月中旬开始的反弹令美联储认为市场误解了政策的意图，因此鲍威尔才会在央行年会中发表强势鹰派的讲话，期望扑灭市场中重燃的乐观情绪。<b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">目前空头方的普遍看法是</span></span>“美国股市还会下跌2</span></span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">0</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">%以上”以及“美联储年底会加息至4</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">.5</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">%以上”。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">不过本周的市场与</span></span>6月初截然不同，在Nick的连续发文攻势下，美国三大股指不跌反涨，Nick的文章没能阻止昨日股市的反攻。<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">股市的反弹说明多头方正在入场，原因在于他们找到了通胀见顶的</span></span>“线索”。就在昨日，<b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">美国发布了最新的房产市场指数，其中住房价格的月跌幅创下</span></span>1</span></span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">1</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">年来新高。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">要知道在美国通胀数据中有三成以上的权重放在住房支出上，房价的下跌虽然无法直接影响到通胀，但的确是通胀见顶的先决条件之一。因此在数据发布后，全球股市同时触底反弹，涨势延续至今日早盘，多头方的入场是合情合理。</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">由此可见，多头与空头方是公说公有理婆说婆有理，但从价格的方向上来看，空头方的担忧情绪还在主导市场，加息的预期不断纳入市价当中。因此</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">在决议发布之前，还是以看空股市为主。然而在加息落地之后，空头方的短期动能消耗殆尽，股市更有可能出现</span></span>“利空出尽”的中短线看涨行情。</span></span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">6月中旬的反弹行情很可能会再度重演，考虑到四巫日结算结束，多头方可能乘此机会重新布局入场。</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202209/21/150220rrfrrrrrct17cpfz.jpg<br></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;"><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">AU200日线图</span></i><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></i></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">在全球范围内，技术形态上最有反弹潜力的要属澳洲股指。从澳洲指数日线图来看，虽然指数在底部关键颈线</span></span>6<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">700</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">位置形成</span></span>K线反转组合，而且该位置还是斐波那契0<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">.618</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">回调线，但动量指标还未上穿零线，说明价格趋势保持下行还未反转。因此配合周四美联储消息面，采用逢低入场会有更高的盈利空间。入场时间还是看指数回调至</span></span>6<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">700</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">大关附近，配合上周四凌晨</span></span>K线的反转形态，便有中短线“抄底”的机会。目标位置分别在7<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">000</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">大关以及</span></span>7<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">150</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">前高点附近。再下方的支撑则要看</span></span>6<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">500</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">前低点附近。</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">今日关注数据</span></span> </span></span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></b></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">14</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">00 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">德国</span></span>8月PPI月率<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">0</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">30 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">加拿大</span></span>8月CPI月率<span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">0</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">30 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">美国</span></span>8月新屋开工总数年化<span style="font-family: 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