【ACY证券】决议来袭黄金看涨，长线牛市时机未到
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">作为本世纪信用度最高的两种</span>“货币”，黄金和美元暗地里一直有着存量竞争的关系，美元涨则黄金跌，美元跌则黄金涨。由于</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">近期美国经济表现良好，避险情绪消退，加息预期高涨，导致黄金价格的跌幅超过了标普指数</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">，甚至跌破了</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">7</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">月底的低点</span>1</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">680</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">大关。而今晚便是货币政策落地的时刻，</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">黄金从短线来看有着和股市一样的反弹机会，然而这波黄金的上涨力度可能并不及股市持久。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">毕竟黄金的高光时刻是在通胀高经济差的时候，然而目前美国的经济却还不没有到</span>“糟糕”的程度。</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">与此同时，战争的走向无疑也影响着黄金的涨跌。由于俄乌之间暂时陷入僵局，双方战争行动被维持在某一个界线。因此市场反而更加关心起俄罗斯与西方之间的贸易相互制裁。不过就在昨日，</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">乌克兰东部的卢甘斯克与顿涅茨克两个地区在宣布</span>“独立”的八年之后，将于下周再次举行全民公投，以决定是否加入俄罗斯联邦。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">背后的政治暗流暂且不提，但地缘风险必然会随之上升，从而暂时支撑黄金的价格。</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202209/23/151000wx6y6myknees4man.jpg<br></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">美国</span>1</span></i><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">0</span></i><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">年期抗通胀债券收益率</span></i><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></i></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></i></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">从黄金价格的波动来看，和美国的实际利率呈现明显的反向波动，伴随</span>8月份开始实际利率的单边上升突破前高，黄金的价格也呈现单边下跌，并在上周同一时间跌破前低。</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">目前的实际利率已经触及</span>2</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">018</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">年</span>1</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">1</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">月份的高点，同样也是黄金价格见底并连续大涨</span>7</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">5%的起点。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">虽然这并不代表通胀已经得到控制，货币政策即将开始转向，但从心理层面来看，会给予黄金价格</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">下方的短线</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">支撑。</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202209/23/151009bcb9tqfpooqxsqvz.jpg<br></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">美国</span>1</span></i><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">0</span></i><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">/</span></i><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">02</span></i><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">年期国债利差</span></i><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></i></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;"><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"></span></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">与此同时，美国的长短期国债利差在零线下方，已经保持了</span>2个半月的倒挂。市场对经济长期衰退有着非常明显的预期。简单来说，就是市场认为美联储必然会通胀控制住以后，开始大幅降息，通过低利率来缓解经济的长期下行压力。市场也将随之迎来真正的黄金牛市，考虑到市场预期对金价有着绝对的影响力，</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">这次牛市的到来可能比很多人想象的更为提前，很可能起始于明年的一季度。</span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></b></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="position:absolute;z-index:1;left:0px;margin-left:472.3333px;margin-top:278.6000px;width:108.0000px;height:38.0000px;"></span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><br><br>data/attachment/portal/202209/23/151015r6zhuur8lggoovgh.jpg<br></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">XAUUSD四小时图</span></i><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></i></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><i><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></i></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">从黄金四小时图来看，下行动能令金价跌穿</span>1</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">680</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">关键水平线，从技术形态上来看，已经跌破了反转头部结构，释放长线空头信号。不过从消息面来看，如果美联储明日加息</span>7</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">5</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">基点，短线将利好包括黄金在内的所有资产价格。金价有望再度站上</span>1</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">680</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">大关。考虑到短线情绪上还是以抛售资产为主，这波金价的反弹可能不会持续很久，更有可能在</span>1</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">680</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">位置做水平甚至向下的震荡。</span><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">受到上周通胀的影响，目前还不是黄金长线投资的最佳时间。整体来看，短线交易策略应该采用逢低做多为主。</span></b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">入场时机关注箱体结构下沿</span>1</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">660</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">附近，可以配合随机指标的超买区金叉，提高入场胜率。上方的阻力主要集中在</span>1</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">680</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">-</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">1690</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">区间，受到中继形态与下降趋势线的共同结构。</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">今日关注数据</span> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></b></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">22:00 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">美国成屋销售总数年化</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">30 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">美国当周</span>EIA原油库存</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">0</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">00 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">美联储公布利率决议</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">0</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">2</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">30 </span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">美联储主席鲍威尔召开新闻发布会</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="font-size:16.5px;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;"><span 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