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( Image: ACB News) By ACB News In the world of mining, few figures can claim to have navigated the full arc of exploration, development, and strategic partnership as deftly as Colin Moorhead. With nearly four decades in the sector—from senior leadership at Newcrest to his current role as Executive Chairman and Managing Director of Xanadu Mines—Moorhead has seen first-hand the cycles, the policy battles, and the boardroom decisions that shape multi-billion-dollar resource projects. Today, his vantage point spans not just a single asset, but an entire copper-gold frontier. At Xanadu, he has steered the Kharmagtai project in Mongolia from under-drilled deposit to a transaction-ready asset, secured a cornerstone partnership with China’s Zijin Mining, and now finds himself at the center of a high-profile takeover by Singapore-based Bastion. It is a story of timing, capital discipline, and navigating the tectonic shifts of geopolitics, commodities, and investor sentiment.
Copper: A Structural Deficit Waiting to Happen Global copper demand, Moorhead argues, is heading into a supply crunch with “structural deficit” written all over it. Even without factoring in the surging appetite from decarbonisation, AI-driven data centres, and grid expansions, normal economic growth alone could keep prices elevated. “We’re simply not discovering and developing copper mines quickly enough to meet future demand,” he says. “Put decarbonisation trends on top, and there simply isn’t enough copper to deliver all the things governments are promising.” He points to political risk as an added complication. Recent talk in the U.S. about imposing 50% tariffs on copper has already rattled the market, triggering short-term volatility. For Moorhead, the long-term trajectory is clear, but investors should expect a jagged climb rather than a smooth rally. Gold: The Hedge That Refuses to Fade Gold, in Moorhead’s view, offers a natural counterweight to copper. Historically, the two metals rarely rally in tandem, but today’s geopolitical backdrop has pushed both higher. “Gold is a financial instrument— a hedge against inflation and uncertainty— and there’s enough of that around the world right now to keep prices strong,” he notes.
In Australian dollar terms, gold is trading above A$5,000 per ounce—levels Moorhead admits he never expected to see. That strength has kept equity capital markets relatively open for junior gold miners, even as other commodities face funding headwinds. But he cautions: cost discipline is the real defensive moat. “In gold, you must be in the lowest quartile of the cost curve; that’s your only real protection against volatility.” Policy Certainty: The Hidden Bedrock of Mining Investment Moorhead’s career has taken him from Indonesia’s “Contract of Work” era to Mongolia’s evolving fiscal regime, and the lesson is consistent: without policy clarity, juniors will not commit capital. “No juniors equals no majors,” he says bluntly. Indonesia’s earlier system allowed companies to lock in fiscal terms before major investments, which spurred a wave of discoveries in the ’70s to ’90s. Mongolia, by contrast, often forces fiscal negotiations after a discovery, increasing early-stage risk. Papua New Guinea’s policy missteps decades ago, he notes, effectively killed its junior sector for years. The right approach, Moorhead argues, is to take a balanced slice of the “economic pie”: “You can take a big slice of a small pie, or a fair slice of a big one. The latter delivers far greater long-term value to a country.” The Capital Toolbox: Beyond Pure Equity Traditional equity financing is tightening, especially for large-scale copper projects. Canada’s TSX market, Moorhead observes, is even tougher than the ASX right now. Juniors are increasingly turning to non-traditional funding—streaming and royalty deals, private equity, and early-stage strategic capital from smelters and traders. “It’s almost impossible to take a big project to FID on pure equity,” he says. “Strategic partners are becoming essential in the copper world.” He cites BHP’s Xplor program as a model—small, targeted investments in juniors to secure low-cost entry points into attractive projects and jurisdictions. Valuation Gaps: Gold’s Premium vs Copper’s Patience In today’s market, gold projects can fetch valuations that copper developers can only dream of. Moorhead recalls a 2-million-ounce gold project set to transact for US$2.4 billion, compared with Xanadu’s world-class Kharmagtai copper-gold project—valued at roughly A$180 million in the Bastion bid. The disparity, he explains, comes down to risk perception and time-to-cashflow: “Gold is more immediate; copper needs longer timelines and greater policy certainty, so big investors often wait until projects are more advanced.” Kharmagtai: From Acquisition to Pre-Feasibility When Moorhead joined Xanadu, the Kharmagtai deposit was inconsistently drilled and undervalued. The first task was to deliver a high-quality mineral resource estimate and a scoping study to define the project’s potential. That study became the springboard for attracting Zijin Mining, which injected US$35 million for a 50% stake in Xanadu’s holding company. The resulting pre-feasibility study outlined a 30-year open-pit mine producing substantial copper and gold at competitive costs. The Bastion takeover, now unconditional, offers shareholders a liquidity event at a significant premium—a “bird in the hand” decision that Moorhead believes was fair given the capital and dilution required to take the project forward. The Junior Survival Code For juniors, Moorhead distills success into three rules: keep overheads low, spend capital in the ground, and deliver on promises. “It all comes down to management credibility”, he says. In the current environment, juniors must also adapt to ESG scrutiny and shifting geopolitical currents. Australia’s delicate balance between its U.S. alliance and Chinese trade dependence, coupled with tighter critical minerals policies, will shape deal structures and offtake agreements for years to come. A Career Defined by Discovery and Discipline Moorhead’s formative years at Newcrest instilled a belief in exploration as the true engine of value creation. Leading Merdeka Copper Gold as its first CEO, he built the Tujuh Bukit Gold Mine—an experience that brought him closer to capital markets and sharpened his sense of investor accountability. “The sliding doors moment was leaving Newcrest and entering the junior world,” he reflects. “You’re much closer to the investor, and you have a clear obligation to communicate well and deliver.” The Next Generation: Mining as a Climate Solution Beyond balance sheets and feasibility studies, Moorhead is passionate about attracting young talent to the sector. Serving six years on the board of the Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy, he has been vocal about reframing mining as part of the climate solution. “Without mining, there’s no sustainable energy—no energy at all,” he says. “It’s easy to be against things. The real question is: what are you for?” For Moorhead, the path begins in schools, encouraging boys and girls to study STEM subjects. “Modern mining is high-tech, AI-driven, and increasingly safe. If you want to make a real difference, join the industry.” In the end, Colin Moorhead’s message is as much about mindset as it is about metals: play the long game, anchor in policy certainty, keep your capital nimble, and never forget that great projects—and great industries—start with discovery. Disclaimer The information provided on this website is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. While every effort is made to ensure accuracy, we do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or timeliness of any content. Investment involves risk. Always seek independent, professional advice before making any financial decisions. |
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